FIRST & GOAL LABS · FOOTBALL INTELLIGENCE
Read the game. Find the edge.
Scores, player estimates, and the reasoning behind them.
Priority review
High-confidence game picks
Projected margin of 4+ points · not a win probability.
No games this week have a projected margin of 4+ points.
Week 5 - Sun, Oct 11, 1:25 PM PT
49ers vs Seahawks
Overall model edgeSF overallAvailability-adjusted · 1 pts
SF24projected
Projected outcomeSF to winBy 1 points · 47 total
SEA23projected
SF · PassingSlight offense
SF OFF
#4
SEA DEF
#7
SF · RushingSlight offense
SF OFF
#7
SEA DEF
#20
SEA · PassingSlight offense
SEA OFF
#3
SF DEF
#12
SEA · RushingSlight defense
SEA OFF
#22
SF DEF
#9
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 13 - Sun, Dec 6, 10:00 AM PT
Jaguars vs Bears
Overall model edgeCHI overallAvailability-adjusted · 1 pts
JAX22projected
Projected outcomeCHI to winBy 1 points · 45 total
CHI23projected
JAX · PassingSlight defense
JAX OFF
#20
CHI DEF
#6
JAX · RushingSlight offense
JAX OFF
#11
CHI DEF
#18
CHI · PassingNeutral
CHI OFF
#22
JAX DEF
#32
CHI · RushingStrong defense
CHI OFF
#29
JAX DEF
#8
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Commanders vs Ravens
High-confidence pick · BAL by 4Overall model edgeBAL overallAvailability-adjusted · 4 pts
WAS23projected
Projected outcomeBAL to winBy 4 points · 50 total
BAL27projected
WAS · PassingSlight offense
WAS OFF
#14
BAL DEF
#31
WAS · RushingSlight offense
WAS OFF
#2
BAL DEF
#1
BAL · PassingSlight offense
BAL OFF
#9
WAS DEF
#13
BAL · RushingStrong offense
BAL OFF
#1
WAS DEF
#22
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Cardinals vs Packers
High-confidence pick · GB by 6Overall model edgeGB overallAvailability-adjusted · 6 pts
ARI21projected
Projected outcomeGB to winBy 6 points · 48 total
GB27projected
ARI · PassingSlight defense
ARI OFF
#24
GB DEF
#23
ARI · RushingSlight offense
ARI OFF
#4
GB DEF
#11
GB · PassingSlight offense
GB OFF
#10
ARI DEF
#18
GB · RushingStrong offense
GB OFF
#3
ARI DEF
#28
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Texans vs Patriots
High-confidence pick · HOU by 7Overall model edgeHOU overallAvailability-adjusted · 7 pts
HOU25projected
Projected outcomeHOU to winBy 7 points · 43 total
NE18projected
HOU · PassingStrong offense
HOU OFF
#1
NE DEF
#25
HOU · RushingSlight defense
HOU OFF
#23
NE DEF
#13
NE · PassingStrong defense
NE OFF
#32
HOU DEF
#3
NE · RushingSlight offense
NE OFF
#8
HOU DEF
#17
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 18 - Sat, Jan 9, 9:00 PM PT
Buccaneers vs Saints
Overall model edgeNO overallAvailability-adjusted · 2 pts
TB22projected
Projected outcomeNO to winBy 2 points · 46 total
NO24projected
TB · PassingNeutral
TB OFF
#15
NO DEF
#26
TB · RushingSlight defense
TB OFF
#20
NO DEF
#7
NO · PassingNeutral
NO OFF
#21
TB DEF
#28
NO · RushingNeutral
NO OFF
#10
TB DEF
#15
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Browns vs Eagles
High-confidence pick · PHI by 8Overall model edgePHI overallAvailability-adjusted · 8 pts
CLE18projected
Projected outcomePHI to winBy 8 points · 44 total
PHI26projected
CLE · PassingSlight defense
CLE OFF
#30
PHI DEF
#24
CLE · RushingSlight defense
CLE OFF
#27
PHI DEF
#21
PHI · PassingNeutral
PHI OFF
#17
CLE DEF
#8
PHI · RushingStrong offense
PHI OFF
#5
CLE DEF
#25
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 15 - Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT
Colts vs Titans
Overall model edgeTEN overallAvailability-adjusted · 2 pts
IND21projected
Projected outcomeTEN to winBy 2 points · 44 total
TEN23projected
IND · PassingNeutral
IND OFF
#12
TEN DEF
#1
IND · RushingNeutral
IND OFF
#12
TEN DEF
#15
TEN · PassingSlight defense
TEN OFF
#29
IND DEF
#29
TEN · RushingNeutral
TEN OFF
#18
IND DEF
#31
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 18 - Sat, Jan 9, 9:00 PM PT
Chargers vs Broncos
Overall model edgeDEN overallAvailability-adjusted · 1 pts
LAC19projected
Projected outcomeDEN to winBy 1 points · 39 total
DEN20projected
LAC · PassingStrong defense
LAC OFF
#31
DEN DEF
#5
LAC · RushingNeutral
LAC OFF
#9
DEN DEF
#10
DEN · PassingStrong defense
DEN OFF
#28
LAC DEF
#10
DEN · RushingSlight defense
DEN OFF
#21
LAC DEF
#6
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Steelers vs Raiders
Overall model edgePIT overallAvailability-adjusted · 1 pts
PIT22projected
Projected outcomePIT to winBy 1 points · 43 total
LV21projected
PIT · PassingSlight defense
PIT OFF
#27
LV DEF
#16
PIT · RushingSlight offense
PIT OFF
#13
LV DEF
#23
LV · PassingNeutral
LV OFF
#15
PIT DEF
#17
LV · RushingStrong defense
LV OFF
#30
PIT DEF
#5
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 18 - Sat, Jan 9, 9:00 PM PT
Falcons vs Panthers
Overall model edgeATL overallAvailability-adjusted · 3 pts
ATL24projected
Projected outcomeATL to winBy 3 points · 45 total
CAR21projected
ATL · PassingSlight offense
ATL OFF
#6
CAR DEF
#22
ATL · RushingNeutral
ATL OFF
#26
CAR DEF
#27
CAR · PassingSlight defense
CAR OFF
#26
ATL DEF
#9
CAR · RushingNeutral
CAR OFF
#19
ATL DEF
#29
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Lions vs Cowboys
Overall model edgeDET overallAvailability-adjusted · 2 pts
DET25projected
Projected outcomeDET to winBy 2 points · 48 total
DAL23projected
DET · PassingSlight offense
DET OFF
#7
DAL DEF
#11
DET · RushingSlight offense
DET OFF
#6
DAL DEF
#24
DAL · PassingStrong offense
DAL OFF
#2
DET DEF
#27
DAL · RushingStrong defense
DAL OFF
#31
DET DEF
#4
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Screenshot snapshot
Bengals vs Giants
Overall model edgeNYG overallAvailability-adjusted · 2 pts
CIN22projected
Projected outcomeNYG to winBy 2 points · 46 total
NYG24projected
CIN · PassingSlight offense
CIN OFF
#5
NYG DEF
#15
CIN · RushingSlight defense
CIN OFF
#28
NYG DEF
#12
NYG · PassingNeutral
NYG OFF
#13
CIN DEF
#19
NYG · RushingNeutral
NYG OFF
#24
CIN DEF
#30
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →
Week 10 - Sun, Nov 15, 10:00 AM PT
Bills vs Jets
Overall model edgeNYJ overallAvailability-adjusted · 3 pts
BUF19projected
Projected outcomeNYJ to winBy 3 points · 41 total
NYJ22projected
BUF · PassingSlight defense
BUF OFF
#24
NYJ DEF
#2
BUF · RushingNeutral
BUF OFF
#14
NYJ DEF
#14
NYJ · PassingNeutral
NYJ OFF
#19
BUF DEF
#14
NYJ · RushingSlight defense
NYJ OFF
#32
BUF DEF
#26
Rank comparison · #1 is strongestExplore matchup →